Nearly half of the nation’s other states have usually held their primaries and caucuses before Alabama’s. In most cases, the nomination was all but determined before Alabama Republicans got a chance to show their preference.
Not only did Alabama lose the national attention that an important primary brings to a state, economic consequences also had an adverse affect. Those who hoped campaign money would flow in as national candidates tried to make their positions known were disappointed. Advertisers and consultants who usually benefited from such spending had to be content with what was spent on state and local races — not an insignificant figure — but that’s much less than presidential candidates spend.
This year could be different.
Three states thus far have held their events — Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — and produced three different winners. Meanwhile, there is a fourth candidate who shows no inclination to leave the race. This could mean that when Alabama’s primary arrives March 13, the 50 delegates at stake may be well worth the candidates’ time and resources. (Mississippi and Hawaii also hold their primaries on that day.)
Moreover, Alabama may finally get the attention Alabama Republicans have long felt the state deserves.
Of course, a lot could happen in the upcoming weeks. March 6 is Super Tuesday, when 11 states go to the polls; a candidate then could break out from the pack. But even if one does, it is unlikely he will have enough delegates to chinch the nomination.
Alabama will remain important.
It’s noteworthy that U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Saks, seems so eager for his party to wrap up its process. In comments to the Birmingham News, Rogers — the co-chair of Mitt Romney’s Alabama campaign — indicated his desire to soon move away from campaigning within the GOP and instead concentrate on President Barack Obama.
“The longer we do this, the less time we have to focus on the administration,” Rogers told The News. “I would really like for us, sooner rather than later, to focus on what’s not right about the current administration.”
Nevertheless, for the first time in decades a party may go into the convention without a clear favorite for the nomination. If it becomes a “brokered” convention, where promises are made and votes pledged in return, Alabama’s role could become even more critical in the nominating process.
Exciting times lie ahead. We will watch with great interest how state GOP leaders handle opportunities that such a narrow race and the possibility of a contested convention will present them.
