Though Alabama and Calhoun County unemployment rates jumped in January, some experts say the increase is not a sign of a worsening economy, but instead part of a national trend that occurs every year.

The latest Alabama Department of Industrial Relations statistics indicate most of the January job losses in the state and the Anniston-Oxford area occurred in the services and retail industry. Economists say those losses are a result of layoffs of temporary workers hired during the Christmas holiday season – a practice retailers usually engage in every year.

“Big hiring goes on in December, especially in retail,” said said Keivan Deravi, economist at Auburn University Montgomery. “In January, all those people are let go. It’s not a major concern.”

According to Industrial Relations statistics, Calhoun County's unemployment rate increased from 10.6 percent in December to 11.7 percent in January while the state’s average increased from 10.9 percent to 11.1 percent – the highest it’s been since 1984.

In January 2009, the county’s unemployment rate was at 8.3 percent, while the state average was at 8.1 percent and the national average was 7.7 percent.

Of Alabama’s 67 counties, Calhoun had the 41st highest unemployment rate in January.

The counties with the lowest unemployment rates were Madison at 8.7 percent, Shelby at 8.8 percent and Coffee at 9 percent. The counties with the highest rates were Wilcox with 27.4 percent, Monroe with 22.4 percent and Conecuh with 21.8 percent.

Of the 800 jobs lost in January in the Anniston-Oxford area, 700 were lost in service-providing industries while the rest were from manufacturing. The service industry includes retail, transportation and warehousing, wholesale trading, leisure and hospitality among others.

Gregory Brown, chairman of the board at BR Williams Trucking in Oxford, said his business struggled and had to lay off employees last year because of the economic recession, but work has picked up since January.

“We were down about 2-and-a-half million miles for 2009 from the previous year,” Brown said. “But activity has picked up … ours has picked up since Jan. 1. It’s very encouraging.”

Brown said trucking orders have increased so much lately that he was able to hire six drivers a few weeks ago.

“We’re still not at the level we were at two years ago business-wise,” Brown said. “But we’re only down 10 to 12 percent from usual.”

In contrast to Calhoun County’s and the state’s unemployment rates, the national average rates decreased from 10 percent in December to 9.7 percent in January.

Ahmad Ijaz, economic analyst for the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Alabama, said part of the reason why unemployment numbers are lower nationwide is because some people have given up trying to find work.

“It’s not because more people are working,” Ijaz said. “It’s just people have dropped out looking for work in the labor force. People who drop out looking for a job are not counted.”

Deravi said another reason for the difference between the national and state unemployment averages is because the national economy is larger and more diversified.

“There’s more of a concentration in health care and research and development,” Deravi said. “We don’t have that in this state. (Alabama’s) economy is not capable of creating enough jobs to overtake the unemployment rate. It’s not mathematically possible.”

Deravi noted that though January’s unemployment numbers are not a huge concern, the economy as a whole is still on shaky ground.

“Capitalism won’t work without capital,” Deravi said. “The economy is very fragile. It’s hurting at its core, which is banking. They are very afraid to make loans. Also be mindful that a lot of retail is small businesses. They are having a tough time to raise credit from banks to buy inventory.”

Ijaz said he is hopeful the Alabama economy will start improving more in May.

“The rate of job losses have slowed down significantly,” Ijaz said. “And demand is picking back up in manufacturing.”

Deravi was more conservative, saying he thinks the state’s economy will start picking up four to five months from now.

“Stimulus money will come in and jobs programs will be in place,” Deravi said. “It will be an end to the fall in jobs, but that doesn’t mean the economy will bounce back to the way it was before the recession.”